Rumor Round-Up: Nikon Edition

By Mike Zawadzki, Technical Consultant

D3, The camera that saved Nikon

2007 was a great year for Nikon.  They saved themselves from becoming a name of the past by introducing the full-frame Nikon D3 along with the D300, an impressive DX format counterpart.  The world beating 14-24mm f/2.8G and 24-70mm f/2.8G lenses were also announced in this release.  Many people in the industry recognize August 2007 as Nikon's long awaited response to Canon's domminance over the Professional Photography market.  

 

Since then Nikon has introduced plenty of great lenses and successful cameras such as the D700 and D90.  However their current lineup of cameras has fallen behind Canon, especially in video features.  The D90 was the first DSLR to record HD video, but Canon stole Nikon's thunder with the 5D Mark II, Rebel t1i, 7D, Rebel t2i, and 1D Mark IV.  All five cameras record 1080p video while Nikon has NO DSLR that records 1080p.  (Until now)  According to various reports, there will be a major Nikon Press Conference on August 19th.  So keep your calenders marked, that date is coming soon!

Please note any image of a product that hasn't been released yet is a simple Photoshop job done by me just for the article.  They are for visual and entertainment purposes only and ARE NOT spy shots or claiming to be.   Also please keep in mind the things listed here are only rumors. Enjoy.  Keep checking back for updates!


Additionally I would like to thank Peter, the Admin at Nikonrumors for always being friendly, providing great information, and for having posted my reviews in the past. He is the guy who gets the inside scoop on stuff like this, I am just organizing it into 1 big post and adding my input, for what it's worth!

DSLR Cameras

Nikon D95

(ETA - Fall 2010)

Rendering of a "D95" next to an original D90

The Nikon D90 is still one of the most popular DSLR cameras.  It's solid build, 720p HD video recording, and ability to accept older Nikon AF-D lenses made the D90 a big hit.  It offered so much in such a little (yet sturdy) body.  Most rumors indicate that the D90 successor will be even better.  If everything I've read comes to fruition, the Nikon D95 will be a benchmark camera that redefines the amateur DSLR market.  


Name: Nikon D95 - 10%
Nikon's naming structure is hard to predict.  The D90 replaced the D80, which replaced the D70, but a D100 will not replace the D90.  The name D100 was already used years ago. (Predecessor to the D200 and D300)  Some people have speculated the camera will be a "D95" or "D90s".  I think "D95" is more realistic because an "s" after a camera's name usually indicates it is a minor upgrade.  The D90 replacement is going to be a major upgrade so I think it will have a different name.


Sensor: 16MP CMOS - 99% 
All signs point to Nikon using a Sony manufactured 16 Megapixel CMOS sensor.  In all reality this is a marginal upgrade from the D90's excellent 12.3MP CMOS sensor.  However a lot of people who will buy this camera will do so because they see 16 Megapixels on the spec sheet.  


ISO: 100-12,800 - 95% 
I expect a slight improvement in high ISO performance.  ISO 100 will be Lo1.  ISO 6400 will be called Hi1 and ISO 12,800 will be Hi2.  


Frame Rate: 6 fps - 85%
All rumors point to Nikon boosting the frame rate from 4.5 fps to 6 fps to match Canon's 50D. Other rumors have mentioned 8, but I think 6 makes the most sense.


HD Movie: 1080p 24fps, 720p 24/30 fps, AVCHD code - 99%
Nikon would be committing marketing suicide if they didn't include full 1080p HD recording in the D90 replacement.  The D90 was the first DSLR to record video and it's replacement will be even better.


LCD Screen: Same as D90 - 70%
There have been no rumors about a D90 replacement having a different screen.  Perhaps it will be slightly higher resolution, but I can't see Nikon making the screen any bigger than 3" yet.  Nothing to worry about here, the high resolution LCD of the D90 is excellent. 


AF System: New 39 Point AF - 65%
Wow.  The D90's 11 point AF system worked well for almost all users, but this would be incredible.  I haven't seen anything about how many points would be cross type, but 39 points would add a level of functionality unheard of in a consumer level camera.


Live View: Revolutionary Quick AF - 95%
Patents and rumors point to all future Nikon cameras being able to focus much faster when using Live View.  Additionally there is a patent for fast continuous focusing during video recording.  These two problems have been the Achilles heel of Live View functionality.  It seems like Nikon has solved them. 


Form Factor: Big Bad Metal Monster! - 85%
It's funny how these rumors work.  The most credible rumors are saying that the Nikon D90 replacement will be more similar to the Canon 50D (and other previous XXD models) while some rumors about the upcoming 60D indicate that Canon will be trying to mimic the form factor of Nikon's D90.  Interesting stuff for sure.  In regards to the Nikon D95, I would personally love a Magnesium Alloy body.  Some people will groan about an increase in weight, but let's not forget that also means an increase in durability.  


Summary:
I am very excited about the potential D95 camera.  It will be released in September, probably right before Photokina.  If the specs I listed are all true, or mostly true, the Nikon D95 will redefine this category of high end consumer digital SLR cameras.  The D300s is a fantastic camera, but for many people the D90 replacement will be just as good if not better.  It will be interesting to compare the Canon 60D and Nikon D95 and I will be sure to do so when I can get my hands on both of them.

Nikon D3100?

(ETA Within Weeks Summer 2010)

If I didn't have more things to work on I would probably make this a Nikon D7000.

The Nikon D3000 and D5000 have been extremely popular cameras.  First time DSLR buyers are attracted to the small form factors of both cameras. Additionally the D5000 has a Signal to Noise ratio (SNR) that is just about on par with the $8,000 (body only) Leica M9.  I am not comparing the two cameras, but it's worth mentioning.  So what about the more serious amateur who doesn't want a bigger camera body such as the D90 (or it's replacement) or the D300s?  If all goes according to plan, these Nikon shooters will have an option in the D3100 (unsure of name)


Name: Nikon D3100 - 10%
The name I am completely unsure of.  D3100 suggests the camera will be a replacement for the D3000, but there are no other names out there.  I think D7000 or D8000 makes more sense because I expect the camera to be in between the D5000 and the D90 (soon to be D95), not a replacement.  Canon has three Rebels and the high-end t2i has been a hit, so I fully anticipate the newest entry level Nikon to be a direct competitor with the Canon t2i.


Sensor: 14.2 MP CMOS - 99% 
Probably the same 14.2 MP Sony sensor that you will find in the NEX cameras.  There will be no noticeable difference from the great 12.3 MP sensor of the D5000, but again it's marketing and consumers want more megapixels, even if they won't notice the difference.


ISO: 100-12,800 - 85% 
The ISO performance will likely be similar to the D5000, maybe slightly better, and will certainly have a more expandable range.  Don't expect the higher ISOs to look good, but I'd rather have a noisy shot that is sharp than a blurry shot (because of subject movement or slow shutter speed) that doesn't have noise.  ISO 100 will be Lo1.  ISO 6400 will be called Hi1 and ISO 12,800 will be Hi2. 


Frame Rate: 3 or 4 fps - 99%
These entry level cameras are not intended for lots of continous shooting, but expect anywhere from 3-4fps.  It's pretty much the industry standard.


HD Movie: 1080p 24fps, 720p 24/30 fps, AVCHD codec - 99%
See above comments (D95).  It will be great that Nikon offers this kind of quality in such a small camera.  It will be a direct competitor to the t2i.


LCD Screen: 3” 920k display - 90%
Don't expect the articulating screen of the D5000 on this body.  It would be a nice feature for some, but I think the same 3" display that has appeared on several Nikon DSLRs in the past is the more likely candidate.  It would be great if Nikon took a page out of Canon's book and changed the aspect ratio ala the t2i, but it is unlikely. 


AF System: Updated 11 or 12 points - 75%
Apparently this will be a new AF system that covers a greater area of the frame.  Bravo to Nikon if this pans out and is true.  One of my biggest gripes over the years has been that AF systems on most DSLR cameras have all of the points crammed into the middle.  Coverage is good!


Live View: Fast AF and continuous focus in video mode 99%
See the above specs on the D95.  


Kit Lens: 18-55mm f/3.5-5.6G DX - 99%
The same kit lens that has come with every entry level Nikon DSLR since the D60.  Kind of boring, but I thought it would be worth mentioning because there have been some rumors on an updated 55-300mm f/4-5.6G DX.  That would be pretty cool!


Summary
If anything is certain this rumor season, it's these two cameras, the D95 and the D3100.  The funny part is, their actual names are the biggest mystery here.  1080p video recording has been a feature that Nikon has gotten burned for not having for the last year or so.  It will be interesting to see both of these new cameras and I will be doing everything in my power to get both of them in my hands for a full review ASAP.  

Nikon D4/D400/D800

(ETA -  2011-2012)

Sorry Nikon fans, it will be a year before we see either of these bad boys!

If you follow any Nikon rumors online you will see many posters practically begging for a D700 replacement.  I understand why some people want this.  There may be a slight refresh (similar to the D300s) coming this winter with a D3s sensor and 1080p HD recording, but for me that wouldn't be a big upgrade.  I wouldn't be upgrading for one extra stop of ISO performance and a feature I wouldn't use.  However for those who don't own a D700 already, this could be very attractive.  It would be a nice stopgap because I don't expect a D800 until well after the D4 and D400 are announced together next summer.  

On professional bodies, Nikon has been so predictable.  It's a 4 year cycle and unless something dramatic happens it always will be.  So the same goes for the D700, expect a 4 year cycle.  Canon did almost the same thing with their 5D and 5D Mark II.  For those of you wondering, the 5D Mark III and Nikon D800 will probably be announced around the same time and no this isn't by accident.  It's good marketing and competition.  Nothing on the new D4 is concrete, but just for fun here are the specs I anticipate.  Just like the D700 had features that trickled down from the D3, you can expect the D700 replacement to get it's guts from the D4.

I am sorry to disappoint those who have been begging for a higher resolution, 1080p ready D700 replacement, but its just the way it goes.  Keep taking good photos with the cameras you have and if another manufacturer makes something that you absolutely NEED, then you'd be a fool to wait around for it while you lose money because you don't have the right tools.

Name: Nikon D4 - 100%

This will be the fourth version of Nikon's professional DSLR line.

Sensor: 18 MP FX CMOS - 50% 

In DX bodies, Nikon seems content tweaking Sony manufactured sensors.  However the D3, D3s, and D700 all feature a Nikon manufactured sensor.  The D3x strayed and used Sony's 24 MP sensor that was in their a900.  However I expect Nikon's newest flagship to have it's own Nikon made sensor.  Expect 16 or 18 Megapixels.  

ISO: 100-204,800 - 50% 

Making serious upgrades instead of minor tweaks is the main reason why Nikon waits 4 years between flagship models.  I expect an extra stop of ISO range over the D3s.  However another option Nikon has is to leave the range at 100-102,400 and just have improvements within that range.  Example: 102,400 ISO looks like 25,600 ISO did on the D3s.  That would be two full stops.  Who knows if that kind of technology exists, but I am anticipating big things here.  Incredible ISO performance is Nikon's game and there's no reason they won't continue to push the limits.

Frame Rate: 10 fps - 100%

The D3 and D3s have frame rates of 9 fps.  It's about time for Nikon to increase to 10 fps to match the Canon EOS 1D Mark IV.  The RAW/JPEG buffer will probably be the same as the D3s.

HD Movie: 1080p 24fps, 720p 24/30 fps, AVCHD codec - 100%

See above comments from D95.  When I list these features, this is the LEAST of what the D4 will feature.  Nikon may do something special with video in the D4 to make up for the professionals they have lost to Canon in this market.

LCD Screen: 3.X” 1,200+K display - 30%

I don't know where there is room on the back or on the inside (don't forget the LCD takes up space inside of the body as well!) for a bigger LCD, but where there's a will there's a way.  It wouldn't shock me to see a slightly bigger, maybe 3.2" LCD on the back of the D4.  The resolution will also improve as well.  That you can be more certain about than the size.

AF System: NEW 61 point system - 15%

Ok 61 points is just a shot in the dark (no pun intended), but I have read rumors that there will be additional points added to the already world class 51 point AF system in the D3, D300, and D700 series.  However what I really expect is improvements in low light accuracy and 3D tracking.  Nikon is already the leader in this segment and they will find a way to make it even better.  Hopefully the points will be more spread out over the entire frame.  I know subjects tend to be in the middle of the frame, but I can't imagine even more points crammed into the center, it would be self defeating.  In fact I would rather have LESS AF points with a more even distribution.

Live View: Fast AF and continuous focus in video mode - 99%

See the above specs on the D95 and D3100.  I also anticipate a live histogram that is found in the Canon 5D Mark II.  The electronic level of the D700 will also find it's way in here.

Storage: Dual CF card slots and an SD slot - 20%

Dual CF storage is 100%.  An additional slot for SD would be ideal for video recording, but it may be a pipe dream.  I haven't heard anything credible on this, it's just my input on what I think would be a very handy feature.

Summary

This flagship will put all of the moaning and complaining on Nikon products to rest.  The masses tend to get agitated when they have to wait for something, but they will be quietly and pleasantly hushed.  For Nikon, nothing (anytime soon) will be as revolutionary as the D3 was.  The D3 was Nikons first FX camera and it saved the brand.  It's hard to beat that, but the D4 will be the leader of it's class as the Canon 1D Mark IV was released only last September. This will have Canon exec's hard at work to come out with something better.  Expect the D800 to mimic many of the features from the D4 besides the form factor, CF card slots, and frame rate.

Lenses

AF-S 85mm f/1.4G N - 95% (VR?)

(ETA: Summer 2011)

A cool rendering by flickr user wongsimage. 

Like many Nikkors, the 85mm f/1.4 could use an update.  Don't get me wrong, for $1,200 this lens is a bargain and it won't go any lower.  If you need this lens, pick it up now before the new one is released and you won't be able to find either for a few months!  There has been a ton of speculation about the lens.  Is it going to be a f/1.4 or f/1.2 lens (to compete with Canon's awesome 85mm f/1.2L)?  Is it going to have VR?  I sincerely doubt Nikon producing an f/1.2 lens.  Some people have said this as well and indicate Nikon's F mount is not large enough to accommodate such a large lens AND an AF motor.  However I don't think this is the case, I believe it is more of a marketing issue.  An 85mm f/1.2 Nikkor would have an MSRP in the $2,300 territory.  While Nikon isn't shy about putting out expensive glass, I think they will be smart and aim for a $1,600 price point. Well known pro and Nikon Shooter, Thom Hogan has speculated that it will be a VR lens.  I have my doubts, but either way a new 85mm lens is coming soon!

AF-S 24-120mm f/4G VR N - 90%
(ETA - Summer 2010)

This lens is well over due.  Please make it happen Nikon!

I am not sure if Canon anticipated that their EF 24-105mm f/4L would be as big as it has become.  The L series mid-range zoom has sold extremely well, especially as the all-star kit lens for the EOS 5D Mark II.  So why hasn't Nikon followed suit yet?  Well they tried to, with their AF-S Nikkor 24-120 f/3.5-5.6G VR.  The problem is the lens just wasn't up to par with the expectations of the people who wanted it.  It did ok on FX bodies like the D700, but those advanced shooters want a fixed aperture lens.  On DX the lens didn't perform very well at all, and someone is much better off with a 18-200mm f/3.5-5.6G DX for about the same price if they are shooting on a DX camera.  Nikon did us right with the 16-35mm f/4G VR N.   I know some PROFESSIONAL Canon shooters who traded in their 24-70 f/2.8L lenses for the 24-105, so if Nikon makes a similar (or better) product, expect the same.

28-300 f/3.5-5.6 ED VR - 95%
(ETA - Summer 2010)

The versatile AF-S Nikkor 18-200mm f/3.5-5.6G DX VR II

The 18-200mm focal length has been extremely popular for DX shooters.  Several manufacturers make a lens with this focal length and it's the do everything lens for those who have a DX camera.  The equivalent focal length in full frame is about 28-300.  Canon makes a 28-300mm f/3.5-5.6L IS lens.  However that lens sells for around $2,400 and I'm sure it's good, but it seems a bit strange to pay that much to use an "all-in-one" zoom.  All rumors point to the Nikon version having a price point of $1,200.  Maybe the rumors are wrong, but it's possible Nikon will introduce this lens as a budget lens, not on the same level as a Canon L series.  If it comes to fruition I will be sure to do a comparison between the Nikon and Canon versions to see what the deal is.

55-300mm f/4.5-5.6G DX VR - 90%
(ETA Summer 2010)

"Oh no! Don't kill me!" says the Nikkor 70-300mm

This lens would be a replacement for the current 55-200mm f/4.5-5.6G DX VR lens that is the optional second kit lens with all Nikon entry level DSLR cameras.  Canon's current model is a 55-250mm and for consumers used to compact point and shoots with big time zoom ranges (albeit poor quality at telephoto settings) every little bit counts.  I think it's an interesting idea, but I can't imagine the image quality being the same as the AF-S 70-300mm f/4.5-5.6G VR.  It would cannibalize the sales of the 70-300 terribly.  However it's important to remember the 70-300 is a full frame lens.  This rumor popped up only a couple weeks ago.  Maybe this lens will be part of a two lens kit with the upcoming D3100/7000?

AF-S 200mm f/2G VR II N - 85%
(ETA - Fall 2010)

The mighty AF-S Nikkor 200mm f/2G VR lens

This rumor sprung up recently and with good sources so I thought I would include it here.  As I mentioned earlier, Nikon isn't shy about updating their big time pro lenses.  This year alone they updated the 300mm f/2.8 with Nano coating and VR II and the 200-400mm f/2.8 also got the same lavish treatment.  It appears the already excellent 200mm f/2 will receive the same upgrades.  Not much else to say on it, but it should be an incredible lens.  

Other Mentions

If all of the above lenses are released, that's all we'll see from Nikon in 2010.  It has been a busy year for Nikon in terms of lenses and they look to be finishing big with the 200mm f/2.  There are several lenses people have been wanting such as an AF-S 35mm f/1.4G.  I am almost certain we will see that lens in 2011.  An updated 80-400mm f/4.5-5.6 VR would be nice.  Making it a "G" lens with Nano coating and VR II makes sense and it should be on Nikon's agenda for 2011.  Another interesting idea is a wide-angle DX prime.  A 16mm f/2.8G DX would fit the description perfectly.  The success of the 35mm f/1.8G DX should be an indication to Nikon that people are interested in lightweight fixed focal length lenses.  In general many of the older AF-D lenses need to be updated to AF-S/G models, but it will be a bit before the whole line is modernized.  As always Nikon is working at a steady pace to bring out solid products.

Nikon Coolpix

If someone at Nikon was listening to me (believe me they have bigger fish to fry) I would suggest making VR standard across all but the most budget models.  Additionally a rugged underwater compact should be a priority for them.  A smaller high quality compact like the Canon S90 would also catch my attention because I would be able to shoot RAW files.  (The Canon S90 shoots RAW, but it would be convenient to be able to work exclusively with .NEW files in my workflow)

Nikon Coolpix P7000

(ETA - Summer/Fall 2010)

The Coolpix P6000 (Image Courtesy of Nikon USA)

I have only been in the photo industry for a very short amount of time, but it has seemed that the Canon G series compact cameras are the most prestigious compacts.  In fact I purchased a Canon G11 for my dad and he loves the darn thing.  It pumps out great files and has all of the knobs for adjustments that an advanced photographer likes to have.  Digging through menus is annoying and a waste of time.  I have only recently seen some noise about a P7000, but with the Canon G12 about to be released this fall, Nikon better get back in the game.  I believe the P7000 will be a worthy competitor to the G11/12 and should include 1080p HD video recording in addition to RAW shooting, a viewfinder, and a hotshoe.  I would like to see this model have a modest megapixel count (maybe around 10) and in my dreams, a CMOS sensor.  If Nikon delivers here, I will buy one immediately and write an in-depth review.

Nikon EVIL System? 

(ETA - Concept in Fall 2010)

The S3 Y2K (A  Nikon film rangefinder) Image Courtesy of mir.com

If you read last week's post, you'll know my thoughts on EVIL (Electronic Viewfinder Interchangeable Lens) cameras.  Rumors have been heating up recently about a Nikon EVIL system.  There are several Nikon patents out there and it seems like Nikon will be ready to launch soon.  One of the more interesting patents is for an automatic cover to slide over the sensor when a lens is removed.  That's right when you take the lens off of an E-PL1 (for example), the little sensor is looking right at you screaming "PUT THE LENS BACK ON YOU IDIOT!"  Seems like a good idea.


Sensor size is the most uncertain area when it comes to the Nikon EVIL system.  Olympus and Panasonic have used a 4/3's sensor which has a 2x crop factor while Sony has chosen to go the route of a APS-C sensor with a 1.5x crop factor.  Large image area results in higher quality images, but it also means the lenses have to be bigger, and thus more expensive.  Right now it is unknown what sensor format Nikon will use.  Only a select number of Nikon executives in Japan know for certain.  However it is interesting to note that in a Bloomberg Article, Nikon President Makoto Kimura stated,


“The new concept model will probably have an enhanced function for video recording and may adopt the so-called mirrorless structure. It could be any time this fiscal year or the following year, as new models are starting to sell.”


Very interesting times are ahead for sure.  Whenever products are announced I will post the official information and my reactions.  I know I will get some things wrong.  The most interesting products and features are the one's that we don't expect.  I am excited to see what Nikon does with the big time shows coming up!

PS - I know I promised something "BIG" being announced in regards to Unique Photo this week.  Don't fret, I am keeping my promise, I just wanted to get this Nikon post out of the way first.  Later this week we will be making a big announcement.  If you want a hint, I have mentioned a certain company several times in this post and our announcement is related to that company!